Do the Super El Niño Savings on OH Heating Bills Hold Up?
What Will Your OH Heating Bill Cost This Winter?
Rising food and gasoline prices have squeezed OH consumers all year. Now forecasters expect a very strong El Niño to bring a warmer than average winter to much of the country. Historically, El Niños deliver milder winters to Ohio, which is welcome news with affordability top of mind for many consumers. Yet El Niños can also destabilize the Polar Vortex, and that destabilization triggers brief but bitter cold snaps that push heating use up for a short time. Even the very strong El Niño of the 2015 to 2016 winter produced several blizzards, ice storms, and frigid wind chills well below zero. Some severe winter storms paralyzed the northeast for several days.
Even with the best Ohio electricity plan, an El Niño winter can spike your monthly electric use and leave you paying more. But, families who struggle with affordability can make smarter choices by learning about home heating costs before the first snowflakes fall.
To help consumers prepare, we collected heating costs for every state and sorted them by the four primary heating fuels.
Comparing Heating Usage Data
Determining a state’s average winter heating cost accurately takes far more than adding up the four monthly fuel costs and dividing by four. After all, the most expensive fuel in a state might heat only 0.3% of its households, yet its high cost would distort the calculated average for what most consumers pay. And with the high heating oil prices this year, that distortion can reach several hundred dollars.
To find realistic costs, we use a weighted average for each state. We multiplied the monthly cost of each heating fuel by the percentage of homes using it. Then we used those amounts to calculate a weighted average monthly cost.
This method reduces the influence of expensive fuels that only a few homes use. Consumers therefore see more realistic costs for the heating systems they will likely use.
We took monthly consumption figures from the EIA 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) to form the basis of this update; the more recent 2024 RECS data will not be available until after the new year. Since the heating season has barely begun and some heating fuel prices are surging, we want Ohio energy consumers to have this information right away.
The 2020 RECS data nevertheless still applies to the coming winter. Two factors drive home heating consumption: the outside temperature, and the length of time a heater must run to warm a home. Although no El Niño occurred then, the 2019-2020 winter was notably mild, so homes needed less heat during those months.
Predicting heat use during an El Niño winter in OH gets more complicated. Recent winters have run warmer than average while still suffering severe blasts of cold, and climate change may explain both patterns. This year’s “Super” El Niño may also stretch or destabilize the Polar Vortex and pull it away from its home over the north pole. As noted earlier, the very strong 2015 to 2016 El Niño produced a warmer than normal winter, yet harsh weather broke through many times. Your total heating use through the winter will therefore likely fall. From late December into early January, however, periodic waves of bitter cold could briefly drive up OH residents’ heating needs.
Natural Gas Prices During El Niño
Roughly thirty states, mostly in the north, rely mainly on natural gas for winter heating. Natural gas also fuels nearly half of the country’s electric generators. That fact matters because winter heating demand for natural gas helps determine how high electricity costs climb at the start of spring.
Because of El Niño’s weather effects, the EIA expects homes in the midwest, south, and northeast that use natural gas and propane as their main space heating source to spend 10 to 15% less on average than they did last winter. Homes on the west coast could spend 7% more.
The EIA also forecasts that homes with electricity as their main heating source will spend slightly more this winter, because wholesale prices have risen. OH electricity consumers surely know that wholesale prices in the PJM area keep climbing and may reach a 41% increase by the end of 2026.
Natural gas prices currently sit lower, thanks to high stored inventories and strong production. Add the real possibility of low heating demand, and natural gas supplies could still exceed the average when the heating season traditionally ends in late March.
For deregulated energy states like Ohio, where consumers choose their power providers, this development bodes well for 2027 electric bills. Electricity prices will likely drop, though only briefly, before the AC season begins. Springtime therefore makes a great moment to shop for cheap electricity deals for your home or business.
How Do Ohio Heating Costs Compare?
Electricity heats just 23% of Ohio homes, according to energy consumption data from the 2020 RECS, and it costs about $95.22 per month on average. Natural gas, the preferred fuel, heats 64% of the state’s homes, but it costs much more, at roughly $202.92 per month.
Propane heats 7% of homes at $209.63 per month, and fuel oil, the most expensive option at $310.86 per month, heats only 2%.
Because natural gas heats so many homes, the weighted average monthly heating cost comes to about $172.04. Since Ohio normally records 7 months with heating degree days, an average winter heating cost can reach $1,200.00.
| State | Electricity | Natural Gas | Propane | Heating Oil | Weighted Average cost per month | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Primary Heating | Average Cost/ |
% Primary Heating | Average Cost/ |
% Primary Heating | Average Cost/ |
% Primary Heating | Average Cost/ |
||
| Ohio | 23% | $95.22 | 64% | $202.92 | 7% | $209.63 | 2% | $310.86 | $172.04 |
We should note that RECS data does not separate fuel costs by system efficiency or age. It simply measures average heating fuel consumption for each type of system. Homes with newer, high-efficiency heating systems can expect lower costs.
Still, the data confirms that electricity carries the lowest monthly heating cost.
How Do Ohio Heating Costs Rank with Other States?
Location matters most when it comes to winter heating costs.
Ohio ranks 20th for the highest weighted average winter heating cost, making it close to the median amount. Geography explains part of that ranking, since cold weather systems sweep eastward over Ohio from western Canada and the Plains States. Cold air crossing the Great Lakes can dump heavy snow and ice on northern Ohio and cause outages and other problems for days. However, Ohio is a major natural gas producer and that helps keep gas costs lower by cutting long distance pipeline costs.
Energy demand nonetheless influences the cost of both electricity and natural gas significantly. As the 7th most populous state in the nation, Ohio has wrestled with tight energy supplies and rising energy prices on the PJM grid.
By contrast, first place Hawaii and second place Florida post the lowest average winter heating costs, partly because only a fraction of their homes bother to install heating systems. Hawaii charges the highest electric rates in the U.S. at 48 cents per kWh, yet a home there that actually has heat averages only about $9.84 in monthly heating costs.
Which Heating Fuel Costs More?
Doubling fuel oil prices have grabbed headlines, but only four states rely on that fuel as their main heating source. Fuel oil remains a major heating source in New England, and it also serves many mid-Atlantic and east central states. Even though very few homes in Ohio use it, the state ranks 11th for the highest monthly cost of fuel oil, at $301.86.
Fuel oil heats about 20% of Alaskan homes, because it provides an easy way to warm the state’s widely scattered towns and settlements. Alaska’s climate gives it some of the highest heating costs in the nation.
| State | Average cost per month |
|---|---|
| Alaska | $602.61 |
| Connecticut | $408.59 |
| Massachusetts | $407.65 |
| New Hampshire | $402.77 |
| Rhode Island | $393.24 |
| Vermont | $358.45 |
| Maine | $341.21 |
| New York | $332.07 |
| New Jersey | $315.18 |
| Pennsylvania | $313.37 |
| State | Average cost per month |
|---|---|
| New York | $311.06 |
| New Hampshire | $263.96 |
| Wyoming | $258.76 |
| Michigan | $250.27 |
| Vermont | $240.62 |
| Illinois | $221.66 |
| Ohio | $209.63 |
| Wisconsin | $207.27 |
| Indiana | $205.82 |
| Massachusetts | $203.56 |
| State | Average cost per month |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma | $333.98 |
| Kentucky | $315.62 |
| Maine | $288.06 |
| Alaska | $275.63 |
| North Dakota | $273.43 |
| Arkansas | $268.46 |
| Georgia | $267.03 |
| Missouri | $259.20 |
| West Virginia | $246.58 |
| Washington | $238.50 |
| State | Average cost per month |
|---|---|
| Hawaii* | $196.84 |
| West Virginia | $144.83 |
| Washington | $124.95 |
| Oklahoma | $116.85 |
| Alaska | $116.82 |
| Kentucky | $114.88 |
| Oregon | $114.14 |
| Arkansas | $107.45 |
| Pennsylvania | $104.52 |
| Indiana | $104.31 |
* Hawaii is well known for having the highest electricity rates in the U.S. The islands each have their own grid and rely on diesel fuel to make electricity. However, the islands are in a tropical climate, which means the real heating usage is almost negligible. Some Hawaiian homes may have electric heat installed, but they may not actually use it regularly.
| State | Primary Heating Fuel | Weighted Average Cost For Heating |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Natural Gas | $316.92 |
| Maine | Fuel Oil | $251.89 |
| Vermont | Fuel Oil | $245.30 |
| New Hampshire | Fuel Oil | $243.00 |
| Connecticut | Fuel Oil | $238.85 |
| Massachusetts | Natural Gas | $230.69 |
| Oklahoma | Natural Gas | $226.45 |
| Rhode Island | Natural Gas | $212.75 |
| New York | Natural Gas | $204.91 |
| Pennsylvania | Natural Gas | $198.86 |
| State | Primary Heating Fuel | Weighted Average Cost For Heating |
|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | Electricity | $9.84 |
| Florida | Electricity | $26.85 |
| Arizona | Electricity | $31.70 |
| Nevada | Natural Gas | $38.02 |
| New Mexico | Natural Gas | $52.90 |
| California | Natural Gas | $56.48 |
| Utah | Natural Gas | $64.97 |
| Louisiana | Electricity | $66.01 |
| Idaho | Natural Gas | $77.46 |
| Montana | Natural Gas | $83.75 |
Heating Costs Compared: 2024 vs 2026
Heating fuel costs have risen from 2024 but at different rates depending on the state.
- Electricity + 9.93%
- Natural Gas + 33.70%
- Propane + 9.42%
- Fuel Oil + 44.44%
Only four states saw their average heating fuel costs go down:
- Nevada -17.33%
- New Mexico -3.77%
- Rhode Island -2.17%
- Utah -3.81%
| State | 2024 Weighted Average Cost | % Change | 2026 Weighted Average Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | $143.84 | 60.38% | $230.69 |
| Kentucky | $126.54 | 55.66% | $196.97 |
| Wisconsin | $90.95 | 55.59% | $141.51 |
| Pennsylvania | $129.37 | 53.71% | $198.86 |
| Michigan | $124.47 | 52.93% | $190.35 |
| Maine | $165.94 | 51.80% | $251.89 |
| Iowa | $115.65 | 50.78% | $174.38 |
| Indiana | $119.72 | 45.53% | $174.23 |
| Kansas | $104.30 | 44.08% | $150.28 |
| Wyoming | $135.06 | 42.44% | $192.38 |
| State | 2024 Weighted Average Cost | % Change | 2026 Weighted Average Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | $45.99 | -17.33% | $38.02 |
| Utah | $67.54 | -3.81% | $64.97 |
| New Mexico | $54.97 | -3.77% | $52.90 |
| Rhode Island | $217.48 | -2.17% | $212.75 |
| Florida | $26.00 | 3.27% | $26.85 |
| Arizona | $30.39 | 4.31% | $31.70 |
| Alabama | $100.58 | 5.51% | $106.12 |
| Ohio | $160.61 | 7.12% | $172.04 |
| Louisiana | $60.82 | 8.53% | $66.01 |
| California | $51.36 | 9.97% | $56.48 |
Ohio placed 8th for the smallest percentage change in its weighted average heating cost, with a rise of 7.12% between 2024 and 2026. Tightening energy supplies and rising electricity rates on the PJM grid pushed electricity costs up 16.95%. Natural gas costs rose only 4.59%, and because gas remains the main heating fuel, that small rise kept the overall increase low. This is especially notable because fuel oil prices jumped 30.34%, though only 2% of homes use it.
So Ohio consumers who heat with natural gas may find that the coming El Niño gives their winter bills a much welcome discount.
Methodology
The RECS 2020 annual household site end-use energy consumption data is measured in mmBtus. Household consumption information for all four fuels was converted into each one's respective market unit (kWh, ccf, and gallons). Monthly costs for each fuel were then calculated from there. Energy prices came from the most recent EIA reports available for 2026 for each fuel.
In order to find the weighted average cost, we multiplied each heating fuel price by the percent of its use in a state (according to the 2020 RECS). We then added up the products to find the weighted average cost. This produced an average cost that reflects what most consumers in a state pay for heating while scaling back the high cost effect of fuels that only a few homes use.
References
Consumption & Efficiency, Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2020/index.php?view=state
Populations in All Age Groups Growing in the South, Driven by Outlying Counties in Metro Areas
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/vintage-2025-pop-estimates.html
Heating Oil and Propane Update
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/
Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_wfr_a_EPLLPA_PRS_dpgal_w.htm
Natural Gas Monthly
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/
Electric Power Monthly
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/index.php
Energy Insights: Residential Natural Gas Prices Expected to Drop
https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/energy-insights-residential-natural-gas-prices-expected-to-drop/
EIA expects gas, propane-heated US homes to spend less this winter
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eia-expects-mixed-picture-us-households-winter-fuel-costs-this-year-2026-10-06/
US power use to beat record highs in 2026 and 2027 as AI use surges, EIA says
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-power-use-beat-record-highs-2026-2027-ai-use-surges-eia-says-2026-10-06/
